Trump Initiates an Investigation Into Potential National Security Threat of Copper Imports

By Lucas J. Narducci, Michael C. Ford, and Amanda A. Reeve

National security is the focus of an Executive Order (EO) signed by President Donald J. Trump on February 25, 2025, entitled “Addressing The Threat To National Security From Imports of Copper.” As the EO asserts, copper is a critical material deemed essential to the United States (U.S.) for national security purposes, as it is vital in the development of defense applications, electric vehicles, renewable energy, advanced electronics, infrastructure and more. However, the EO explains that due to the lack of sufficient smelting and refining capacity, the U.S. is becoming increasingly more reliant on the importation of mined, smelted and refined copper from foreign sources. Specifically, the EO states that the dominance of an unnamed single foreign producer that controls “over 50 percent of global smelting capacity and [has] four of the top five largest refining facilities” establishes a significant risk to the U.S. As a result, the EO is initiating an investigation to be conducted in accordance with section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to assess the potential threat to national security resulting from imports of copper in all forms.

The EO directs the Secretary of Commerce to initiate the investigation in consultation with the Secretaries of the Defense, Interior, and Energy Departments, along with any other relevant heads in the administration “to evaluate the national security risks associated with copper import dependency,” and to submit a report by November 22, 2025 (270 days from date of EO)¹. The EO directs that the report is to provide:

• a threat assessment of U.S. dependence on copper imports;
• recommendations for mitigating any such threats (tariffs, export controls, incentives promoting domestic production, etc.); and
• recommendations for strengthening the domestic copper supply chain (investment strategies, recycling initiatives, permitting reforms, etc.).

The investigation, as directed by the EO, is to be conducted in accordance with 19 USC §1862(d) of the Trade Expansion Act, which assesses the domestic production of copper to meet national defense needs, as well as the implications of foreign competition to the economic welfare of U.S. industries. The EO, in accordance with the direction of section 1862(d), instructs that the investigation consider, in addition to any other relevant issues, the following factors in terms of national security:

• current and projected U.S. demand for copper in the defense, energy, and critical infrastructure sectors to meet national defense requirements;
• capacity to which domestic copper production, smelting, refining, and recycling can meet national defense requirements, including the existing and anticipated readiness of the necessary resources, supplies and services essential to operations;
• resources necessary to foster development of domestic copper production, smelting, and refining capacity, including the investment and exploration thereof, to meet national defense requirements and reduce reliance on copper imports;
• implications on the domestic copper supply chain and capacity to meet national defense requirements resulting from the importation of copper, in terms of quantities, availabilities, character, and use.

The EO, in accordance with the direction of section 1862(d), instructs that the investigation consider the following factors regarding copper imports:

• implications of copper imports from a small concentration of suppliers;
• implications to the competitiveness of U.S. copper industries due to “foreign government subsidies, overcapacity, and predatory trade practices;”
• potentiality of foreign nations to implement export restrictions, including the possible weaponization of control over refined copper supplies;
• implications on domestic copper production from existing trade policies and whether implementation of tariffs or quotas are needed for national security;
• impact to the U.S. economy from “artificially suppressed copper prices due to dumping and state-sponsored overproduction.”

This investigation is currently underway as both the EO and 19 USC §1862(b)(1) mandates that the investigation be initiated immediately upon receipt of the written request. The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) within the Department of Commerce conducts the investigation in accordance with 19 USC §1862 of the Trade Expansion Act and the regulations pertaining to the “Effect of Imported Articles on National Security” at 15 CFR §705. In addition to consulting closely with the Department of Defense and other relevant executive agencies and departments to conduct a proper investigation, the BIS is also permitted, if deemed appropriate, to request, via notice in the Federal Register, public comments or hold a public hearing to elicit additional relevant information.²

An Executive Summary, excluding classified or proprietary information, of the report on the investigation will be published in the Federal Register for public consumption.³ If the investigation finds that no threat to national security exist from copper imports, then no further action is required by the president, commerce, or Congress. However, if the investigation concludes that copper imports pose a threat to national security in some manner, then the report must advise the president on the matter and provide recommendations for actions.⁴

Upon receipt of the report, the president will have 90 days to concur or reject the findings and, for those findings with which the president concurs, determine the nature and duration of the action assessed to adjust the imports.⁵ Once the president makes the determination of the action to be taken, the president has 15 days to implement said action and 30 days to submit a written statement to Congress explaining the reason for the action or inaction.⁶ Additionally, the president must publish the same in the Federal Register for public review.

This investigation will likely be of particular interest to the mining industry in the U.S., notably in the state of Arizona where, according to the January 2025 Mineral Commodity Summaries (2025 MCS) published by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), it was reported that “Arizona was the leading copper-producing State and accounted for approximately 70% of domestic output.” Arizona also serves as home to one of the only two active copper smelters in the United States with the Freeport-McMoRan Miami operations. The only other active copper smelter is in Utah with the Rio Tinto Kennecott Copper Bingham Canyon Mine operations. According to the 2025 MCS, in addition to Arizona and Utah, the states of Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico also mine copper in the U.S. These seven states will likely be interested in and impacted by the findings of this investigation. Snell & Wilmer’s Natural Resources team will be monitoring the progression of this investigation closely for the potential solicitation of public input and to assess the possible implications that the president’s determinations, if any, will have on the various impacted industries.

**Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and not of the firm or the authors’ colleagues.